T&E Analysis: European Truckmakers Could Lose Quarter of Electric Truck Market to Chinese Rivals by 2030
Chinese EV trucks offer up to 12% lower total cost of ownership while matching European models on range and efficiency metrics.
Transport & Environment (T&E) projects that Chinese truckmakers could capture up to 25% of the European heavy electric truck market by 2030, driven by lower costs and competitive performance metrics that challenge legacy European manufacturers.
What Happened
The EU heavy truck market, which sees approximately 245,000 vehicles sold annually, is currently dominated by legacy players including Daimler Truck, Traton, IVECO, DAF, and Volvo Group. Zero-emission trucks accounted for 5.6% of EU sales in 2025, doubling the previous year's figure, with adoption rates exceeding 15% in Norway, Sweden, and the Netherlands. T&E analysis indicates that Chinese entrants, having announced plans to offer comparable quality at lower prices, aim to secure a quarter of this segment by the end of the decade. The research found that Chinese electric trucks perform on par with European models regarding driving range, charging time, maximum payload, and energy efficiency, while delivering a total cost of ownership (TCO) that can be up to 12% lower.
Why It Matters
A 12% reduction in total cost of ownership represents a significant advantage in the haulage sector, where profit margins typically hover between 1.5% and 2%. Stef Cornelis, Director of Freight and Fleets at T&E, warned that weakening the pace of electrification now presents an opportunity for US and Chinese competitors to gain significant market share in Europe and globally. Beyond Chinese manufacturers, Tesla has announced plans to bring its Semi to Europe, adding further competitive pressure as it logs sales at prices lower than many US competitors. This shift underscores the urgency for European truckmakers to accelerate their transition to electric powertrains to avoid ceding ground to international rivals.
The Bottom Line
European truckmakers face intensified competition from Chinese and US manufacturers who are offering electric trucks with comparable specifications and lower total costs of ownership, threatening to erode market share by 2030 if the transition pace is not maintained.
