SpaceX Reports Q3 Earnings Tuesday Amid Merger Speculation With Tesla
Analysts project SpaceX’s first profitable quarter since IPO, with results potentially setting the exchange ratio for a Tesla merger.
SpaceX is scheduled to release its third-quarter financial results after the market closes on Tuesday, a report that will serve as the company’s first test of profitability since its initial public offering and may influence the terms of a potential merger with Tesla.
What Happened
According to Bloomberg consensus data cited by Pepperstone, SpaceX is expected to report revenue of $12.89 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $6.62 billion, and adjusted earnings per share near $0.15. This performance would represent approximately 65% growth from the second quarter and mark the company’s first profitable quarter since going public. Segment revenue is projected at roughly $6.4 billion from AI operations and $4.9 billion from Starlink, which is forecast to reach 14.3 million consumer subscribers. Capital expenditures are expected to total $19.6 billion, resulting in negative free cash flow of approximately $11.6 billion. The earnings webcast will begin at 4:30 p.m. ET and stream on X. Tesla is scheduled to report its own results one day later.
Why It Matters
The financial results are critical for investors evaluating a potential acquisition of Tesla by SpaceX. Barclays analyst Dan Levy has predicted an all-stock deal where SpaceX buys Tesla at a premium, using reference values of $2.1 trillion for SpaceX and $1.5 trillion for Tesla. Levy noted that an announcement would need to occur by late October or early November to allow for a vote at Tesla’s December 6 annual meeting. If a merger proceeds, Tuesday’s earnings could effectively set the exchange ratio for Tesla shareholders converting their holdings into SpaceX stock. A strong quarter with moderated spending would make this exchange more palatable to investors, while heavy capital expenditures and a declining stock price could complicate the narrative. SpaceX shares closed Friday at $146.03, sitting about 28% below their June high of $225.64, despite recent operational milestones including Starship Flight 14 and a $13 billion annual compute hosting agreement.
The Bottom Line
SpaceX’s Q3 report will highlight its path to profitability and cash burn rate, directly impacting the valuation dynamics of a possible Tesla merger. Investors are watching for confirmation of management’s targets, including a $100 billion annualized revenue run rate and over 2 gigawatts of compute capacity by year-end.
