Analysts Say Midterm Elections Unlikely to Shift US EV Policy

Analysts from S&P Global suggest that a shift in power in the US Congress following the midterm elections is unlikely to result in significant changes to electric vehicle policy. Despite hopes among EV advocates that a Democratic victory could reverse recent regulatory rollbacks, structural political hurdles remain high.

What Happened

According to S&P Global, even if Democrats were to secure majorities in both the Senate and the House of Representatives, they would face substantial obstacles in restoring previous EV incentives and fuel efficiency standards. The current Trump administration has rolled back alternative fuel laws and EV sales support. While a new Democratic Congress could draft legislation to reinstate tax credits and strict Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards, the President would likely veto such measures. Overriding a presidential veto requires a two-thirds majority in Congress, a threshold the analysis describes as highly unlikely for Democrats to achieve in both chambers.

Why It Matters

The inability to quickly reverse federal policy could prolong a competitive gap between the US and other major markets. S&P Global data indicates that plug-in vehicle market share currently stands at approximately 60% in China and around 45% in Europe, compared to single-digit percentages in the United States. Jeff Meyer, director of mobility and energy at CERA, noted that the challenge of overcoming a veto is a "very, very high hurdle." Consequently, meaningful policy changes favoring EVs may not occur until at least 2028, allowing Chinese and European automakers to continue innovating and expanding their market lead while US growth remains stunted.

The Bottom Line

Without a supermajority capable of overriding a presidential veto, midterm election results are expected to have minimal impact on US EV policy in the near term, leaving the country behind global leaders in plug-in vehicle adoption.