Musk Says Cybertruck Isn’t Dying From Weak Sales; Data Suggests Otherwise

Tesla CEO Elon Musk stated on X that Cybertruck orders "far exceed" the company’s production rate and that the vehicle’s discontinuation is driven by opportunity cost rather than poor demand or profitability. This comment follows an announcement earlier in the week that production at Giga Texas will wind down by mid-2027 to make room for Cybercab manufacturing.

What Happened

Musk’s overnight post clarified that while Tesla intends to produce as many units as possible before shutting down the line in approximately eight months, the company will need to return deposits for many customers. He attributed the shutdown to the "complexity of Cybertruck" and the higher value of incremental Cybercab production, dismissing reports of weak sales as misinformation. This marks the second explanation provided by Musk in three days regarding the end of the pickup’s production.

However, Tesla’s delivery data contradicts the claim of overwhelming demand. The Cybertruck line has operated at roughly a quarter of its installed capacity. In Q3 2026, Tesla delivered 8,295 units in its "Other Models" category, which includes the Cybertruck, Model S, and Model X. With Model S and X out of production, estimates suggest 7,000 to 8,000 of those deliveries were Cybertrucks, representing a 30,000-unit annual pace and a 48% year-over-year decline in that category. Cox Automotive data further illustrates a demand contraction, showing US Cybertruck sales fell from 14,416 in Q3 2024 to 3,519 in Q1 2026 and 3,744 in Q2 2026.

Why It Matters

The discrepancy between Musk’s narrative and the sales data highlights the challenges Tesla faced in sustaining the Cybertruck’s market position. Despite building a supply chain capable of 250,000 units annually, Tesla did not utilize the approximately 95,000 units of idle annual capacity that would have been available if orders truly exceeded production. Instead, the company employed various tactics to stimulate demand, including a limited-time dual-motor offer at $59,990 in February and the removal of the single-motor RWD version after only 173 sales. Internal purchases also played a role, with SpaceX and other Musk-affiliated entities accounting for about 19% of US registrations in Q4 2025.

Additionally, Musk’s assertion that the truck is not unprofitable remains difficult to verify, as Tesla does not disclose specific margins for the Cybertruck. Critics note that Tesla raised Cybertruck prices by up to 10% and paused orders for the cheapest trim on the same day it announced the production end, moving the cheapest orderable price from $69,990 in August to $92,490. This pricing strategy suggests an attempt to maximize margin on the final units rather than a response to robust demand.

The shift in reasoning from needing floor space to needing "smart people" for the Cybercab line further complicates the narrative, especially given recent personnel losses in the Cybercab team. Michael So, who led Cybercab new product introduction and was Giga Texas employee #1, left in April for nuclear startup Aalo Atomics. Last month, Tesla lost its Cybercab general assembly lead to Rivian’s R2 program just weeks after the launch. If talent is the bottleneck, it is the Cybercab team that is bleeding it.

The Alternative Is Also Weak

Musk’s "opportunity cost" argument rests on the assumption that Cybercab production is a high-value alternative to Cybertruck manufacturing. However, current data suggests the Cybercab business is still in its infancy. As of late October, only 463 Cybercab units were registered in Texas. In comparison, Waymo, the leader in robotaxis, is conducting approximately 500,000 paid rides a week with an estimated revenue run rate of $355 million. Tesla does not break out robotaxi revenue, and analysts expect it to be a fraction of Waymo’s.

Musk has a history of missed autonomy deadlines, having promised a million robotaxis on the road by 2020 and stating that unsupervised self-driving was a year away almost every year since 2016. By walking away from a proven market—where Ford sold 801,525 F-Series trucks and GM sold 925,656 Silverados and Sierras last year—Tesla is betting on a sector that has not yet demonstrated comparable scale or revenue.

The Bottom Line

While a potential last-call rush may boost short-term interest, public data indicates that Cybertruck sales declined significantly throughout 2026. Musk’s explanation for ending production centers on strategic reallocation of resources to the Cybercab, but Tesla’s utilization rates, discounting history, and the current low volume of Cybercab registrations suggest demand was a primary factor in the vehicle's trajectory.