Tesla’s China Sales Drop 66% to Lowest Level in Over Four Years
Domestic retail sales fell to 8,817 units in October, while exports surged to comprise 87% of total wholesale volume.
Tesla’s domestic sales in China plummeted 66% year-over-year in October, hitting the lowest monthly volume since July 2022, according to data from the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA).
What Happened
Tesla China wholesaled 67,829 vehicles in October, a figure that represents a 10.3% increase compared to the same period last year. However, 59,012 of these units were exports, leaving only 8,817 vehicles for the domestic market. This domestic figure marks the lowest sales month for Tesla in China since July 2022, when the Shanghai factory was partially shut down for line upgrades. In contrast, the factory operated normally this month, with exports accounting for 87% of total wholesale volume. Nearly all domestic sales were Model Y units (7,807), with only 1,010 Model 3s sold. Compared to September, when Tesla sold 64,837 cars in China, domestic sales dropped by 86%.
Why It Matters
The disparity between wholesale and retail figures highlights a growing divergence in Tesla’s China strategy. While the overall Chinese NEV market saw a 10% year-over-year decline in October, Tesla’s domestic sales fell significantly steeper. Competitors like Xiaomi, Leapmotor, and BYD continued to report strong delivery numbers during the same period. The surge in exports appears linked to an upcoming reduction in Beijing’s VAT export rebate on EVs, which is set to drop from 13% to 9% in April 2027. Automakers are expected to front-load shipments ahead of this deadline. Consequently, Tesla has now shipped more cars abroad than it has sold domestically through October, a reversal from last year when domestic sales exceeded exports by more than two to one. Year-to-date, Tesla’s domestic sales in China stand at 389,905, a 15% decline from the previous year.
The Bottom Line
Tesla’s October performance in China reflects a combination of seasonal quarterly cycles and a structural shift toward exports ahead of regulatory changes. The company’s domestic market share has shrunk to approximately 0.8% of China’s NEV retail market. Future months will determine whether this trend continues or if Tesla can regain domestic traction as it has in previous years.
